Consequences of a Contemporary Crisis for Political Stability and/or Change

Overview

Contemporary crises — whether human rights violations, armed conflicts, or mass movements of people — have profound consequences that extend far beyond the immediate geographic epicentre. In VCE Politics, students must evaluate how their chosen crisis has affected political stability and/or driven political change at the national, regional, and global levels. These consequences may be immediate or long-term, direct or indirect, and may affect both the states at the centre of the crisis and those at the periphery.

KEY TAKEAWAY: A crisis doesn’t just cause destruction — it reshapes political landscapes, realigns alliances, generates new norms, and creates political opportunities as well as challenges. The most politically significant crises are those that fundamentally alter the rules or distribution of power in the international system.

Understanding the Consequences Framework

Consequences can be organised along three axes:

Case Study: Russia-Ukraine War — Consequences for Political Stability and Change

Destabilising Consequences

For Ukraine:
- Massive civilian displacement: over 6 million refugees abroad, 5–8 million internally displaced
- Economic devastation: Ukrainian GDP fell approximately 30% in 2022
- Infrastructure destruction: power grid attacks left millions without electricity in winter 2022–23
- Yet: Paradoxically, the war strengthened Ukrainian national identity and state cohesion — fighting an existential threat united a society previously divided between pro-Western and pro-Russian orientations

For Russia:
- Sanctions impact: Western sanctions and self-sanctioning by businesses reduced Russian access to technology, finance, and consumer goods — though impact was cushioned by redirecting trade to China, India, and Gulf states
- Military reputation damage: Russia’s failure to achieve a rapid victory undermined perceptions of its conventional military capability
- Brain drain: Estimated 500,000–1 million Russians — disproportionately educated and skilled — fled Russia following the invasion and mobilisation decree
- Political repression escalation: Navalny arrested, organisations banned, independent media shut down — the war deepened authoritarianism

For Europe:
- Energy crisis (2022): Russia’s weaponisation of gas supply caused energy price spikes across Europe, feeding inflation and political instability in multiple EU member states
- Political polarisation: Governments in Germany, Italy, France, and Hungary faced internal divisions over the pace and scale of Ukraine support

Transformative/Change-Inducing Consequences

European Security Architecture:
- NATO enlargement: Sweden (March 2024) and Finland (April 2023) joined NATO — the most significant expansion since 2004 and a profound consequence of the war
- European defence spending: All NATO members accelerated defence budget increases toward the 2% GDP target; Germany’s Zeitenwende represented a fundamental shift in German foreign and security policy
- EU as security actor: The EU providing lethal military aid (European Peace Facility) for the first time marked a qualitative shift in EU identity

Global Order:
- The war accelerated a geopolitical realignment between a Western bloc and a China-Russia bloc, with a large “swing” middle (India, Gulf states, Africa, Latin America)
- The weaponisation of the dollar (sanctions, SWIFT exclusion) accelerated conversations about alternative financial architectures (Yuan trade, BRICS currency discussions)
- The conflict demonstrated that great power war in Europe is possible again — shattering post-Cold War assumptions of permanent European peace
- UN reform debates intensified: UNSC veto paralysis was made starkly visible, reigniting discussions about reforming the UNSC (though reform remains politically blocked)

Case Study: Rohingya Crisis — Consequences

For Myanmar

• International isolation: arms embargoes, targeted sanctions, suspension from ASEAN processes post-coup
• ICC/ICJ proceedings damaged Myanmar’s international reputation — though the military junta appeared indifferent to reputational costs
• The coup (February 2021) — while not solely caused by the Rohingya crisis — was facilitated by the military’s increased confidence following impunity for the genocide, deepening Myanmar’s political instability

For Bangladesh

• Hosting over 1 million Rohingya refugees created enormous economic and social strain on one of the world’s most densely populated countries
• Cox’s Bazar — the world’s largest refugee camp complex — represents a major humanitarian emergency with no resolution in sight
• Political instability in Bangladesh itself (2024 revolution ousting Sheikh Hasina) intersects with Rohingya situation

For Regional and Global Governance

• ASEAN credibility crisis: ASEAN’s inability to collectively respond to both the Rohingya crisis and Myanmar’s coup severely damaged its credibility as a regional security organisation
• R2P norm erosion: The failure to invoke or operationalise Responsibility to Protect contributed to the perception that R2P is selectively applied and unreliable
• ICC jurisdiction norms: The Gambia v Myanmar case created new precedents for third-state standing under the Genocide Convention — a significant contribution to international humanitarian law development, regardless of the outcome for Rohingya themselves

Political Change: New Norms and Institutions

Some of the most important consequences are the creation of new political norms and institutions — longer-term transformations that outlast the immediate crisis:

COMMON MISTAKE: Many students describe consequences as entirely negative (destabilisation, displacement, destruction). A more sophisticated analysis also identifies consequences that drove positive political change — new institutions, stronger norms, reformed alliances, or new forms of cooperation that may outlast the immediate crisis.

EXAM TIP: Use specific quantified consequences where possible — numbers of displaced people, GDP changes, specific alliance changes with dates — to demonstrate your command of evidence. Examiners reward precision.

VCAA FOCUS: Connect your analysis of consequences back to the broader unit themes of power and national interest: whose interests were advanced by the consequences of the crisis? Which actors gained or lost power as a result? This analytical move elevates your response from description to political analysis.